SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
25-10 | Road
105
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
15-20 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
SPURS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
SA By 1-7 points
26.8%
SA By 8-14 points
18.6%
MEM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
122
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
120
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
108
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.0
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.9% more
San Antonio: 48.5
vs
Memphis: 43.7
Turnovers (L5)
+31.5% more
Memphis: 14.0
vs
San Antonio: 10.7
Assists (L5)
+17.2% more
Memphis: 29.7
vs
San Antonio: 25.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Memphis: 46.7%
vs
San Antonio: 45.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
122.0
105
MEM Score
120.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 31.2
37.0 / 30.0
Assists
29.7 / 25.4
28.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.5
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 45.0
40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
80.9 / 82.3
67.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
43.7 / 48.5
61.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.4
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 10.7
23.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SA
MEM
SA
ML
57%
59-44
60%
111-73
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
107-76-1
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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