MIAMI
HEATMIA
20-16 | Road
94
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
23-13 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
HEAT
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
MIN By 1-7 points
15.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
125
MIAMI
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.0
Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 6, 2026
MIA @ MIN
94 - 122
Jan 3, 2026
MIN @ MIA
125 - 115
Mar 7, 2025
MIN @ MIA
106 - 104
Nov 10, 2024
MIA @ MIN
95 - 94
Dec 18, 2023
MIN @ MIA
112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.3% more
Miami: 13.2
vs
Minnesota: 10.2
Turnovers (L5)
+18.6% more
Miami: 16.0
vs
Minnesota: 13.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Miami: 39.2%
vs
Minnesota: 32.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Miami: 81.9%
vs
Minnesota: 77.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
125.0
94
MIN Score
118.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 39.2
36.0 / 32.0
Assists
27.2 / 29.1
27.0 / 28.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.7
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 47.0
46.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 81.9
78.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
45.6 / 43.7
63.0 / 50.0
Steals
10.2 / 13.2
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 16.0
12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MIA
MIN
MIA
ML
54%
63-53
48%
46-50
54%
50-43
59%
48-34
ATS
58%
67-49
51%
49-47
54%
50-43
59%
48-34
TTL
63%
72-43-1
59%
57-39
100%
93-0
100%
82-0
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