FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
22-16-3 | Road
1
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
19-15-7 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Steven Lorentz
#18 | C@
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Lorentz | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 3.21 | 0.864 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.21
--
Save %
0.864
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
PANTHERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
FLA By 1 goal
12.1%
FLA By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
1
FLORIDA
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
FLA @ TOR
6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026
TOR @ FLA
1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026
FLA @ TOR
1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025
TOR @ FLA
4 - 1
May 18, 2025
FLA @ TOR
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+24.4%
Toronto: 37.1%
vs
Florida: 12.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.5% more
Toronto: 11.7
vs
Florida: 10.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.6%
Toronto: 53.7%
vs
Florida: 45.0%
Hits (L5)
+24.1% more
Florida: 28.2
vs
Toronto: 21.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
1.0
1
TOR Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.7 / 10.1
18.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
53.7 / 45.0
51.7 / 48.3
Hits
21.4 / 28.2
21.0 / 31.0
Power Play %
3705.0 / 1261.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.6 / 28.9
23.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 4.8
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
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