TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
11-3 | Road
100
KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
10-4 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
JAYHAWKS
0%
HORNED FROGS
--
JAYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Kansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)
TCU By 1-7 points
1.4%
TCU By 8-14 points
0.2%
KU By 1-7 points
6.8%
KU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
TCU
59
TCU
Kansas
80
KANSAS
Simulated Score
TCU
68
TCU
Kansas
75
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jayhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Jayhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
TCU @ KU
73 - 78
Jan 6, 2026
TCU @ KU
100 - 104
Jan 22, 2025
KU @ TCU
74 - 61
Jan 6, 2024
TCU @ KU
81 - 83
Feb 20, 2023
KU @ TCU
63 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.0% more
Kansas: 11.5
vs
TCU: 10.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Kansas: 38.8%
vs
TCU: 37.2%
Steals (L5)
+20.7% more
TCU: 7.6
vs
Kansas: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
TCU: 20.0
vs
Kansas: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TCU Score
59.0
100
KU Score
80.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 37.2
40.0 / 43.0
Assists
16.3 / 20.0
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.3 / 7.1
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 47.1
52.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 76.8
75.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 39.2
38.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.6
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.1
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
KU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
KU
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
TCU
KU
TCU
ML
57%
20-15
74%
26-9
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
ATS
49%
17-18
74%
26-9
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
TTL
60%
21-14
66%
23-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
Kansas Basketball Secures Melvin Council Jr. for Unprecedented S…
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…