Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Tigers PENN @ PRIN

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

7-6  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Jan 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Jadwin Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

PRINCETON

TIGERSPRIN

4-11  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
QUAKERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
PRINCETON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Princeton)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 TigersPRIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

0.8%

Tigers Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PRIN -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRIN)

PENN By 1-7 points

0.6%

PENN By 8-14 points

0.1%

PRIN By 1-7 points

4.0%

PRIN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
59
PENNSYLVANIA
83
PRINCETON
Simulated Score
70
PENNSYLVANIA
75
PRINCETON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 PRIN @ PENN 60 - 61
Jan 5, 2026 PENN @ PRIN 76 - 78
Mar 8, 2025 PENN @ PRIN 71 - 95
Feb 7, 2025 PRIN @ PENN 61 - 59
Mar 9, 2024 PRIN @ PENN 105 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +18.0%
Princeton: 77.3% vs Pennsylvania: 59.3%
Blocks (L5) +53.6% more
Pennsylvania: 3.2 vs Princeton: 1.5
Steals (L5) +18.0% more
Pennsylvania: 6.3 vs Princeton: 5.2
Assists (L5) +16.0% more
Pennsylvania: 16.1 vs Princeton: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 59.0 76
PRIN Score 83.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 37.3 37.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.5 / 16.1 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 45.3 54.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 59.3 65.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 35.8 23.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.2 / 6.3 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.8 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
PRIN Advantage
9-20-0 (31.0%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
PRIN Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
PRIN
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PRIN
PENN
PRIN
PENN
ML
45% 13-16
53% 16-14
62% 18-11
76% 22-7
ATS
48% 14-15
63% 19-11
62% 18-11
76% 22-7
TTL
72% 21-8
70% 21-9
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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