STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
3-11 | Road
69
WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
6-6 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
SEAHAWKS
0%
SKYHAWKS
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WAGNER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Wagner)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WAG -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAG)
STO By 1-7 points
24.3%
STO By 8-14 points
13.7%
WAG By 1-7 points
26.2%
WAG By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Stonehill
103
STONEHILL
Wagner
104
WAGNER
Simulated Score
Stonehill
63
STONEHILL
Wagner
68
WAGNER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
WAG @ STO
68 - 57
Jan 4, 2026
STO @ WAG
69 - 60
Feb 20, 2025
STO @ WAG
57 - 63
Jan 30, 2025
WAG @ STO
61 - 73
Feb 3, 2024
WAG @ STO
61 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+45.7% more
Wagner: 16.1
vs
Stonehill: 11.0
Steals (L5)
+36.2% more
Wagner: 6.2
vs
Stonehill: 4.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.9%
Wagner: 46.7%
vs
Stonehill: 36.8%
Blocks (L5)
+8.1% more
Wagner: 3.2
vs
Stonehill: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STO Score
103.0
69
WAG Score
104.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 32.3
42.0 / 39.0
Assists
16.1 / 11.0
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.0
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 36.8
40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 72.4
100.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 38.6
33.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.2 / 4.6
1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 14.0
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
WAG
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
WAG
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAG
STO
WAG
STO
ML
63%
19-11
45%
15-18
57%
17-13
70%
23-10
ATS
60%
18-12
39%
13-20
57%
17-13
70%
23-10
TTL
53%
16-14
55%
18-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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