Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dolphins @ Lakers LEM @ MERC

LE MOYNE

DOLPHINSLEM

6-8  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 2:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

5-9  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
DOLPHINS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Mercyhurst)
DolphinsLEM (-3.5) 0 LakersMERC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

0.1%

Lakers Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

LEM By 1-7 points

0.1%

LEM By 8-14 points

0.0%

MERC By 1-7 points

1.1%

MERC By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
57
LE MOYNE
87
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
68
LE MOYNE
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MERC @ LEM 57 - 58
Jan 4, 2026 LEM @ MERC 60 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 LEM @ MERC 78 - 82
Jan 12, 2025 MERC @ LEM 63 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +70.1% more
Mercyhurst: 10.6 vs Le Moyne: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Mercyhurst: 71.9% vs Le Moyne: 65.7%
Rebounding (L5) +25.7% more
Le Moyne: 37.6 vs Mercyhurst: 27.9
Turnovers (L5) +19.3% more
Le Moyne: 13.3 vs Mercyhurst: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LEM Score 57.0 60
MERC Score 87.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.1 / 39.5 40.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.6 / 14.2 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.3 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 46.2 44.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 65.7 84.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 27.9 / 37.6 39.0 / 35.0
Steals 10.6 / 6.2 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 13.3 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LEM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LEM
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LEM
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +1.1
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
LEM
MERC
LEM
ML
59% 20-14
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 21-13
65% 20-11
79% 26-7
69% 22-10
TTL
53% 18-16
42% 13-18
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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