SEATTLE U
REDHAWKSSEA
12-4 | Road
76
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
14-2 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
0%
GAELS
100%
REDHAWKS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
SEATTLE U
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Seattle U)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SEA -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-7 points
0.4%
SEA By 8-14 points
2.2%
SMC By 1-7 points
0.0%
SMC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle U
95
SEATTLE U
Saint Mary's
61
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Seattle U
60
SEATTLE U
Saint Mary's
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks (-12.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
SMC @ SEA
72 - 70
Jan 4, 2026
SEA @ SMC
76 - 93
Dec 28, 2019
SEA @ SMC
58 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.7% more
Seattle U: 5.4
vs
Saint Mary's: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+32.0% more
Seattle U: 8.5
vs
Saint Mary's: 5.8
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
Seattle U: 11.7
vs
Saint Mary's: 9.9
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
Saint Mary's: 14.6
vs
Seattle U: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
95.0
76
SMC Score
61.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 30.7
53.0 / 44.0
Assists
14.6 / 13.1
24.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.3 / 5.4
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 38.6
54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
82.4 / 73.7
84.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 37.8
46.0 / 19.0
Steals
5.8 / 8.5
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 11.7
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
15-17-1
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: -4.8
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
SEA
SMC
SEA
ML
56%
18-14
46%
16-19
82%
23-5
71%
24-10
ATS
62%
20-12
57%
20-15
83%
24-5
71%
24-10
TTL
53%
17-15
49%
17-18
100%
29-0
100%
34-0
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