Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Racers BRAD @ MUR

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

10-5  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 5:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

12-3  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
BRAVES --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Murray State)
BravesBRAD (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

2.3%

Racers Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

BRAD By 1-7 points

1.7%

BRAD By 8-14 points

0.3%

MUR By 1-7 points

8.0%

MUR By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
66
BRADLEY
86
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
69
BRADLEY
74
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MUR @ BRAD 78 - 87
Jan 4, 2026 BRAD @ MUR 66 - 86
Mar 7, 2025 MUR @ BRAD 62 - 70
Feb 22, 2025 MUR @ BRAD 83 - 85
Jan 18, 2025 BRAD @ MUR 74 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.9% more
Murray State: 4.6 vs Bradley: 3.7
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Murray State: 15.6 vs Bradley: 13.1
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Murray State: 12.7 vs Bradley: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Murray State: 80.6% vs Bradley: 72.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRAD Score 66.0 66
MUR Score 86.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 37.1 43.0 / 39.0
Assists 15.6 / 13.1 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.7 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 43.4 51.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 72.9 93.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 37.3 44.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.0 0.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.4 12.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
BRAD
MUR
BRAD
ML
58% 19-14
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
ATS
52% 17-16
59% 20-14
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
TTL
70% 23-10
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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