Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Salukis @ Bruins SIU @ BEL

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

7-8  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 5:00 PM ET
Curb Event Center Arena
View Odds Details →

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

13-2  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
SALUKIS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BELMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Belmont)
SalukisSIU (-3.5) 0 BruinsBEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Salukis Cover

34.5%

Bruins Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BEL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BEL)

SIU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SIU By 8-14 points

9.3%

BEL By 1-7 points

27.4%

BEL By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
74
BELMONT
Simulated Score
71
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
75
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 BEL @ SIU 73 - 68
Jan 4, 2026 SIU @ BEL 68 - 67
Feb 15, 2025 BEL @ SIU 73 - 68
Jan 8, 2025 SIU @ BEL 86 - 90
Feb 14, 2024 SIU @ BEL 68 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +77.8% more
Belmont: 19.0 vs Southern Illinois: 10.7
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Belmont: 4.0 vs Southern Illinois: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +19.5% more
Belmont: 14.9 vs Southern Illinois: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.8%
Belmont: 44.2% vs Southern Illinois: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIU Score 70.0 68
BEL Score 74.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.2 / 31.4 25.0 / 36.0
Assists 19.0 / 10.7 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.2 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 45.2 54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 65.4 50.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 39.3 30.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.2 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 12.5 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
BEL Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
SIU
BEL
SIU
ML
47% 15-17
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
ATS
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
TTL
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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