FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
KNIGHTSFDU
4-10 | Road
82
SAINT FRANCIS
RED FLASHSFPA
2-12 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
RED FLASH
100%
KNIGHTS
--
RED FLASH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Fairleigh Dickinson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FDU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FDU)
FDU By 1-7 points
20.1%
FDU By 8-14 points
27.2%
SFPA By 1-7 points
8.0%
SFPA By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairleigh Dickinson
64
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Saint Francis
52
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
Fairleigh Dickinson
73
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Saint Francis
78
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Flash
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Knights (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Red Flash (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
SFPA @ FDU
59 - 66
Jan 4, 2026
FDU @ SFPA
82 - 85
Feb 22, 2025
FDU @ SFPA
80 - 85
Jan 12, 2025
SFPA @ FDU
75 - 71
Feb 17, 2024
SFPA @ FDU
74 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.8% more
Fairleigh Dickinson: 12.8
vs
Saint Francis: 10.5
Rebounding (L5)
+13.6% more
Fairleigh Dickinson: 34.8
vs
Saint Francis: 30.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.3%
Fairleigh Dickinson: 68.8%
vs
Saint Francis: 59.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Fairleigh Dickinson: 42.5%
vs
Saint Francis: 38.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FDU Score
64.0
82
SFPA Score
52.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 35.3
38.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.1 / 12.8
17.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.7 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
38.8 / 42.5
46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
59.5 / 68.8
83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 34.8
30.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.9
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 12.8
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FDU
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SFPA
7-24-0
(22.6%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FDU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SFPA
Advantage
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0%
Total +/-: -2.5
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
FDU
SFPA
FDU
ML
68%
21-10
65%
20-11
67%
20-10
74%
23-8
ATS
68%
21-10
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
74%
23-8
TTL
58%
18-13
58%
18-13
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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