Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Bulldogs INST @ DRKE

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

8-7  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 3:00 PM ET
Knapp Center
View Odds Details →

DRAKE

BULLDOGSDRKE

7-7  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
SYCAMORES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
DRAKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsDRKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

34.5%

Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DRKE +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DRKE)

INST By 1-7 points

27.4%

INST By 8-14 points

21.6%

DRKE By 1-7 points

20.1%

DRKE By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
INDIANA STATE
77
DRAKE
Simulated Score
75
INDIANA STATE
78
DRAKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sycamores Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 DRKE @ INST 76 - 62
Jan 4, 2026 INST @ DRKE 72 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 INST @ DRKE 81 - 85
Jan 18, 2025 DRKE @ INST 71 - 53
Mar 10, 2024 DRKE @ INST 84 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +58.4% more
Indiana State: 2.8 vs Drake: 1.2
Assists (L5) +30.6% more
Indiana State: 18.5 vs Drake: 12.9
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
Indiana State: 12.4 vs Drake: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Indiana State: 48.3% vs Drake: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 81.0 72
DRKE Score 77.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 32.1 35.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.9 / 18.5 15.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.2 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 48.3 53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 65.5 / 58.3 44.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 31.7 29.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.7 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.4 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
DRKE Advantage
14-20-0 (41.2%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
DRKE
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DRKE
INST
DRKE
INST
ML
59% 20-14
66% 21-11
38% 13-21
53% 17-15
ATS
85% 29-5
62% 20-12
38% 13-21
53% 17-15
TTL
56% 19-15
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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