Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Tommies DEN @ STMN

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

8-8  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Lee & Penny Anderson Arena
View Odds Details →

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

11-4  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
TOMMIES
100%
PIONEERS --
TOMMIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 TommiesSTMN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

46.0%

Tommies Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

DEN By 1-7 points

26.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

16.9%

STMN By 1-7 points

24.3%

STMN By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
84
DENVER
83
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
67
DENVER
73
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tommies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tommies (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Tommies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 STMN @ DEN 80 - 82
Jan 4, 2026 DEN @ STMN 88 - 92
Mar 6, 2025 DEN @ STMN 62 - 80
Feb 8, 2025 STMN @ DEN 79 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 DEN @ STMN 62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.1% more
Denver: 3.4 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Denver: 9.6 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.1
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
Denver: 36.1 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 31.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
Denver: 80.2% vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 70.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 84.0 88
STMN Score 83.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 39.2 39.0 / 38.0
Assists 17.2 / 11.8 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.4 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 54.3 / 50.2 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 80.2 59.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 36.1 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.3 / 6.0 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 9.6 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
STMN
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
DEN
STMN
DEN
ML
64% 21-12
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
ATS
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
TTL
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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