Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Leopards @ Greyhounds LAF @ L-MD

LAFAYETTE

LEOPARDSLAF

3-11  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 5:00 PM ET
Reitz Arena
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYLAND

GREYHOUNDSL-MD

4-10  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
LEOPARDS
0%
📊
GREYHOUNDS
100%
LEOPARDS --
GREYHOUNDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
LAFAYETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Lafayette)
LeopardsLAF (-3.5) 0 GreyhoundsL-MD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Leopards Cover

86.4%

Greyhounds Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAF -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAF)

LAF By 1-7 points

21.6%

LAF By 8-14 points

27.4%

L-MD By 1-7 points

9.3%

L-MD By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
92
LAFAYETTE
81
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Simulated Score
68
LAFAYETTE
72
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Leopards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Greyhounds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Leopards (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Greyhounds (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 L-MD @ LAF 68 - 54
Jan 3, 2026 LAF @ L-MD 79 - 64
Feb 5, 2025 L-MD @ LAF 71 - 58
Jan 22, 2025 LAF @ L-MD 80 - 59
Feb 14, 2024 L-MD @ LAF 79 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Lafayette: 44.9% vs Loyola Maryland: 43.0%
Blocks (L5) +115.3% more
Loyola Maryland: 3.0 vs Lafayette: 1.4
Steals (L5) +37.6% more
Loyola Maryland: 6.6 vs Lafayette: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +33.3% more
Loyola Maryland: 14.5 vs Lafayette: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAF Score 92.0 79
L-MD Score 81.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 35.3 29.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.3 / 13.7 11.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.4 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 44.9 39.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 70.8 73.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 32.0 32.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.6 / 4.8 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.9 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
L-MD Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
L-MD Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.0
L-MD
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
L-MD
LAF
L-MD
LAF
ML
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
ATS
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
TTL
44% 14-18
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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