Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Jaguars TXSO @ SOU

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

2-9  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 6:00 PM ET
F.G. Clark Activity Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

4-9  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
TIGERS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Southern)
TigersTXSO (-3.5) 0 JaguarsSOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.1%

Jaguars Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SOU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)

TXSO By 1-7 points

0.1%

TXSO By 8-14 points

0.0%

SOU By 1-7 points

0.6%

SOU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
TEXAS SOUTHERN
88
SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
69
TEXAS SOUTHERN
72
SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 SOU @ TXSO 73 - 74
Jan 3, 2026 TXSO @ SOU 73 - 84
Feb 17, 2025 TXSO @ SOU 57 - 66
Jan 4, 2025 SOU @ TXSO 67 - 58
Feb 19, 2024 SOU @ TXSO 56 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +15.4% more
Southern: 7.9 vs Texas Southern: 6.9
Assists (L5) +8.4% more
Southern: 10.7 vs Texas Southern: 9.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Southern: 29.6% vs Texas Southern: 24.0%
Blocks (L5) +35.5% more
Texas Southern: 4.0 vs Southern: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 56.0 73
SOU Score 88.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 24.0 37.0 / 21.0
Assists 10.7 / 9.9 20.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 45.1 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 72.4 62.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 37.9 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.9 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 15.5 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
SOU Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SOU
TXSO
SOU
TXSO
ML
67% 22-11
64% 18-10
70% 21-9
71% 17-7
ATS
64% 21-12
61% 17-11
70% 21-9
71% 17-7
TTL
42% 14-19
71% 20-8
100% 30-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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