Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Terriers AMER @ BU

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

8-6  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Case Gym
View Odds Details →

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

5-9  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
TERRIERS
0%
EAGLES --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Boston University)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

13.6%

Terriers Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BU)

AMER By 1-7 points

9.3%

AMER By 8-14 points

2.7%

BU By 1-7 points

21.6%

BU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
60
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
71
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
67
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
71
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terriers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terriers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terriers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Terriers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 AMER @ BU 73 - 75
Feb 28, 2026 BU @ AMER 68 - 65
Jan 3, 2026 AMER @ BU 64 - 62
Feb 22, 2025 BU @ AMER 44 - 48
Jan 8, 2025 AMER @ BU 54 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +78.3% more
Boston University: 2.7 vs American University: 1.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Boston University: 11.0 vs American University: 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Boston University: 30.1 vs American University: 26.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Boston University: 50.4% vs American University: 46.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 60.0 64
BU Score 71.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 38.0 36.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.7 / 15.2 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 46.1 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 75.5 71.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 26.2 34.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.9 / 9.3 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 9.5 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
AMER
BU
AMER
ML
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 21-13
59% 19-13
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
TTL
65% 22-12
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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