Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Mavericks HOU @ DAL

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

21-10  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

12-23  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
ROCKETS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.0%

Mavericks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

HOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.7%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
121
HOUSTON
122
DALLAS
Simulated Score
108
HOUSTON
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 DAL @ HOU 107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026 HOU @ DAL 104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025 HOU @ DAL 109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025 DAL @ HOU 102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025 DAL @ HOU 96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Dallas: 80.3% vs Houston: 75.7%
Blocks (L5) +30.6% more
Houston: 6.7 vs Dallas: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Houston: 16.1 vs Dallas: 14.1
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Houston: 47.6 vs Dallas: 42.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 121.0 104
DAL Score 122.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 39.6 38.0 / 24.0
Assists 25.9 / 25.7 24.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.6 / 6.7 10.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 54.4 55.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 80.3 / 75.7 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 47.6 47.0 / 51.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.7 6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 16.1 16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
HOU
DAL
HOU
ML
62% 63-39
61% 69-44
54% 44-37
59% 51-35
ATS
67% 68-34
62% 70-43
54% 44-37
59% 51-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
51% 58-55
100% 81-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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