MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
21-13 | Road
125
MIAMI
HEATMIA
19-15 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
HEAT
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIN By 1-7 points
15.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
5.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Miami
125
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Minnesota
108
MINNESOTA
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 6, 2026
MIA @ MIN
94 - 122
Jan 3, 2026
MIN @ MIA
125 - 115
Mar 7, 2025
MIN @ MIA
106 - 104
Nov 10, 2024
MIA @ MIN
95 - 94
Dec 18, 2023
MIN @ MIA
112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.7% more
Miami: 12.1
vs
Minnesota: 7.8
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Miami: 14.6
vs
Minnesota: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.1%
Miami: 87.2%
vs
Minnesota: 75.1%
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
Miami: 29.5
vs
Minnesota: 26.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
118.0
125
MIA Score
125.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 36.1
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
29.5 / 26.5
27.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.4 / 6.6
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 46.4
47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
87.2 / 75.1
86.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
47.6 / 44.4
37.0 / 40.0
Steals
12.1 / 7.8
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 11.9
19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIN
MIA
MIN
ML
48%
46-50
54%
63-53
59%
48-34
54%
50-43
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
67-49
59%
48-34
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
57-39
63%
72-43-1
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
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