Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jackrabbits @ Fighting Hawks SDST @ UND

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

JACKRABBITSSDST

8-8  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

7-10  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
0%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
JACKRABBITS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (South Dakota State)
JackrabbitsSDST (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jackrabbits Cover

84.1%

Fighting Hawks Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)

SDST By 1-7 points

23.0%

SDST By 8-14 points

27.2%

UND By 1-7 points

10.7%

UND By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
95
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
85
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
72
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jackrabbits Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jackrabbits (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UND @ SDST 83 - 91
Jan 3, 2026 SDST @ UND 87 - 90
Mar 7, 2025 UND @ SDST 85 - 69
Feb 1, 2025 SDST @ UND 75 - 80
Jan 16, 2025 UND @ SDST 73 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.1% more
South Dakota State: 3.9 vs North Dakota: 2.3
Assists (L5) +31.1% more
South Dakota State: 16.0 vs North Dakota: 11.0
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
South Dakota State: 46.0% vs North Dakota: 41.3%
Steals (L5) +61.2% more
North Dakota: 7.1 vs South Dakota State: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDST Score 95.0 87
UND Score 85.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 34.3 34.0 / 42.0
Assists 11.0 / 16.0 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.9 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 46.0 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 66.9 89.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 38.8 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.4 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.7 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
SDST
UND
SDST
ML
44% 15-19
75% 24-8
50% 17-17
53% 17-15
ATS
50% 17-17
78% 25-7
50% 17-17
53% 17-15
TTL
65% 22-12
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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