UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
9-5 | Road
65
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
8-7 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
MATADORS
0%
GAUCHOS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
UCSB By 1-7 points
15.3%
UCSB By 8-14 points
5.8%
CSUN By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSUN By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
79
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal State Northridge
86
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
68
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal State Northridge
72
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.0
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u156.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
CSUN @ UCSB
85 - 83
Jan 3, 2026
UCSB @ CSUN
65 - 74
Mar 13, 2025
UCSB @ CSUN
78 - 72
Mar 1, 2025
UCSB @ CSUN
77 - 103
Jan 30, 2025
CSUN @ UCSB
78 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+55.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 2.9
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+20.3% more
Cal State Northridge: 8.3
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 6.9
Rebounding (L5)
+17.1% more
Cal State Northridge: 39.4
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 33.6
Turnovers (L5)
+20.5% more
UC Santa Barbara: 16.9
vs
Cal State Northridge: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
79.0
65
CSUN Score
86.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 39.8
17.0 / 20.0
Assists
17.9 / 17.2
16.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.9 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 51.2
49.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 80.7
62.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 33.6
43.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.3 / 6.9
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 16.9
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUN
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
UCSB
CSUN
UCSB
ML
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
72%
23-9
ATS
58%
19-14
62%
20-12
67%
22-11
72%
23-9
TTL
58%
19-14
47%
15-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
