Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Cougars MORE @ SIUE

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

6-8  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:30 PM ET
First Community Arena
View Odds Details →

SIU EDWARDSVILLE

COUGARSSIUE

9-5  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
EAGLES --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (SIU Edwardsville)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 CougarsSIUE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

4.5%

Cougars Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIUE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIUE)

MORE By 1-7 points

3.3%

MORE By 8-14 points

0.6%

SIUE By 1-7 points

12.2%

SIUE By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
46
MOREHEAD STATE
63
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Simulated Score
65
MOREHEAD STATE
72
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u133.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 SIUE @ MORE 65 - 67
Jan 3, 2026 MORE @ SIUE 73 - 72
Feb 20, 2025 SIUE @ MORE 80 - 62
Jan 25, 2025 MORE @ SIUE 54 - 65
Mar 7, 2024 SIUE @ MORE 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +89.8% more
SIU Edwardsville: 3.6 vs Morehead State: 1.9
Steals (L5) +25.1% more
SIU Edwardsville: 9.3 vs Morehead State: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.3%
SIU Edwardsville: 40.1% vs Morehead State: 27.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Morehead State: 42.7% vs SIU Edwardsville: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 46.0 73
SIUE Score 63.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 27.8 35.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.0 / 11.4 15.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 42.7 44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 68.7 75.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 37.4 31.0 / 28.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.5 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 12.6 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
SIUE
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
SIUE
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIUE
MORE
SIUE
MORE
ML
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
60% 18-12
68% 21-10
ATS
55% 17-14
59% 19-13
60% 18-12
68% 21-10
TTL
48% 15-16
53% 17-15
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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