Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Ragin' Cajuns USM @ UL

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

8-7  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Cajundome
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

3-12  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Southern Miss)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

98.9%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USM -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-7 points

4.8%

USM By 8-14 points

13.7%

UL By 1-7 points

0.8%

UL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SOUTHERN MISS
59
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
75
SOUTHERN MISS
78
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o129.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u129.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 USM @ UL 74 - 67
Dec 18, 2025 UL @ USM 54 - 62
Feb 22, 2025 UL @ USM 62 - 60
Jan 25, 2025 USM @ UL 67 - 59
Mar 1, 2024 USM @ UL 61 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.6% more
Southern Miss: 13.2 vs Louisiana: 8.9
Steals (L5) +25.5% more
Southern Miss: 7.0 vs Louisiana: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Southern Miss: 39.2 vs Louisiana: 31.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.6%
Southern Miss: 79.2% vs Louisiana: 68.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 82.0 74
UL Score 59.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 31.2 35.0 / 23.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.2 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 38.8 / 44.3 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 79.2 75.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 39.2 24.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.0 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 13.2 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
USM
UL
USM
ML
66% 21-11
53% 18-16
63% 19-11
73% 24-9
ATS
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
63% 19-11
74% 25-9
TTL
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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