PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
7-6 | Road
77
ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
9-4 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
RED STORM
0%
FRIARS
--
RED STORM
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
PROV By 1-7 points
4.8%
PROV By 8-14 points
1.1%
SJU By 1-7 points
15.3%
SJU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
70
PROVIDENCE
St. John's
85
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
Providence
73
PROVIDENCE
St. John's
78
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Storm
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm (-13)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Red Storm (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u170.0
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u170.0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PROV @ SJU
72 - 85
Feb 14, 2026
SJU @ PROV
79 - 69
Jan 3, 2026
PROV @ SJU
77 - 71
Feb 1, 2025
PROV @ SJU
66 - 68
Dec 20, 2024
SJU @ PROV
72 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.7% more
St. John's: 5.9
vs
Providence: 4.3
Steals (L5)
+26.6% more
St. John's: 8.0
vs
Providence: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
St. John's: 42.0%
vs
Providence: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
70.0
77
SJU Score
85.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.0 / 33.3
23.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.9 / 16.2
9.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.3
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 46.2
28.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 79.6
65.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 36.7
51.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.0 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 12.0
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
PROV
SJU
PROV
ML
62%
18-11
59%
19-13
62%
18-11
67%
20-10
ATS
66%
19-10
50%
16-16
62%
18-11
67%
20-10
TTL
59%
17-12
44%
14-18
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
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