Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Owls MEM @ RICE

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

6-7  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 3:00 PM ET
Tudor Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

RICE

OWLSRICE

6-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
OWLS
100%
TIGERS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Memphis)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 OwlsRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

99.4%

Owls Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

3.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

10.7%

RICE By 1-7 points

0.5%

RICE By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MEMPHIS
57
RICE
Simulated Score
71
MEMPHIS
74
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 MEM @ RICE 76 - 70
Feb 26, 2025 RICE @ MEM 72 - 84
Feb 2, 2025 MEM @ RICE 86 - 83
Jan 31, 2024 RICE @ MEM 74 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Memphis: 17.7 vs Rice: 12.0
Steals (L5) +30.0% more
Memphis: 11.5 vs Rice: 8.0
Assists (L5) +27.7% more
Memphis: 14.9 vs Rice: 10.8
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Memphis: 44.5% vs Rice: 37.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 82.0 76
RICE Score 57.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 30.8 31.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.8 / 14.9 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.5 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 37.3 / 44.5 37.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 54.6 77.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 39.2 31.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.0 / 11.5 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 17.7 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
RICE Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
RICE Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
MEM
RICE
MEM
ML
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
53% 16-14
68% 21-10
ATS
60% 18-12
62% 20-12
53% 16-14
68% 21-10
TTL
77% 23-7
66% 21-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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