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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

19-15-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 7:00 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

22-15-4  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Matthew Schaefer
GOALTENDER

Matthew Schaefer

#48 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Matthew Schaefer None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
ISLANDERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

97.7%

Islanders Cover

2.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

6.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

NYI By 1 goal

0.9%

NYI By 2-3 goals

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TORONTO
1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Islanders (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 NYI @ TOR 1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026 NYI @ TOR 3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025 TOR @ NYI 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +39.6%
Toronto: 55.6% vs New York: 16.0%
Shots on Goal (L5) +21.3% more
Toronto: 29.5 vs New York: 23.2
Hits (L5) +17.4% more
Toronto: 22.6 vs New York: 18.7
Takeaways (L5) +27.9% more
New York: 6.0 vs Toronto: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 5.0 3
NYI Score 1.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.1 / 12.0 11.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 51.0 / 51.9 42.9 / 57.1
Hits 18.7 / 22.6 21.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 1599.0 / 5558.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 23.2 / 29.5 25.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 6.0 / 4.7 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
TOR
NYI
TOR
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 2-0-1
100% 4-0
100% 2-0-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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