Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Lions FGCU @ UNA

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

6-8  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 3:00 PM ET
Flowers Hall
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

5-7  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
EAGLES --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Alabama)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 LionsUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

30.9%

Lions Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

FGCU By 1-7 points

18.6%

FGCU By 8-14 points

8.0%

UNA By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNA By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
74
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
70
FLORIDA GULF COAST
74
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UNA @ FGCU 58 - 69
Jan 29, 2026 UNA @ FGCU 64 - 72
Jan 3, 2026 FGCU @ UNA 72 - 55
Jan 9, 2025 UNA @ FGCU 70 - 75
Feb 3, 2024 FGCU @ UNA 69 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +13.9% more
North Alabama: 3.9 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 3.5
Assists (L5) +50.7% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 16.6 vs North Alabama: 8.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.5%
Florida Gulf Coast: 38.6% vs North Alabama: 26.0%
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 12.1 vs North Alabama: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 69.0 72
UNA Score 74.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.0 / 38.6 24.0 / 36.0
Assists 8.2 / 16.6 5.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.5 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 39.2 / 48.3 31.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 77.5 67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 34.3 29.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.3 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.1 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
UNA Advantage
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
FGCU
UNA
FGCU
ML
43% 13-17
58% 19-14
57% 16-12
67% 22-11
ATS
60% 18-12
61% 20-13
57% 16-12
67% 22-11
TTL
63% 19-11
61% 20-13
100% 28-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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