NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
13-1 | Road
83
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
11-2 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
TAR HEELS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
UNC By 1-7 points
23.0%
UNC By 8-14 points
27.2%
SMU By 1-7 points
10.7%
SMU By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina
80
NORTH CAROLINA
SMU
70
SMU
Simulated Score
North Carolina
78
NORTH CAROLINA
SMU
72
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 3, 2026
UNC @ SMU
83 - 97
Jan 7, 2025
SMU @ UNC
67 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.9% more
SMU: 8.4
vs
North Carolina: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+28.7% more
SMU: 11.4
vs
North Carolina: 8.8
Blocks (L5)
+23.7% more
SMU: 4.6
vs
North Carolina: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+19.2% more
SMU: 22.3
vs
North Carolina: 18.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNC Score
80.0
83
SMU Score
70.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 33.2
52.0 / 43.0
Assists
22.3 / 18.7
23.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.8 / 47.5
60.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 65.0
69.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 43.5
29.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.4 / 5.9
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 8.8
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
UNC
SMU
UNC
ML
59%
20-14
76%
25-8
73%
24-9
69%
22-10
ATS
62%
21-13
73%
24-9
73%
24-9
69%
22-10
TTL
56%
19-15
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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