HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
12-1 | Road
67
CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
8-5 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
BEARCATS
0%
COUGARS
--
BEARCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
HOU By 1-7 points
21.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
10.7%
CIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
CIN By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
65
HOUSTON
Cincinnati
68
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Houston
62
HOUSTON
Cincinnati
75
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Bearcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
CIN @ HOU
54 - 76
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ CIN
67 - 60
Mar 1, 2025
CIN @ HOU
64 - 73
Feb 27, 2024
CIN @ HOU
59 - 67
Feb 10, 2024
HOU @ CIN
67 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+92.3% more
Cincinnati: 5.2
vs
Houston: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+31.0% more
Cincinnati: 10.4
vs
Houston: 7.9
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
Cincinnati: 17.8
vs
Houston: 14.4
Rebounding (L5)
+20.8% more
Cincinnati: 41.5
vs
Houston: 34.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
65.0
67
CIN Score
68.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 37.2
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
17.8 / 14.4
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
5.2 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 46.6
43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 78.3
75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 34.4
30.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.8 / 8.8
2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 7.9
15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
HOU
CIN
HOU
ML
67%
22-11
70%
26-11
74%
23-8
68%
23-11
ATS
64%
21-12
70%
26-11
74%
23-8
68%
23-11
TTL
67%
22-11
59%
22-15
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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