Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gators @ Tigers FLA @ MIZ

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

9-4  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 8:30 PM ET
Mizzou Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

10-3  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
GATORS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Missouri)
GatorsFLA (-3.5) 0 TigersMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gators Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIZ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

FLA By 1-7 points

24.3%

FLA By 8-14 points

13.7%

MIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIZ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
64
FLORIDA
65
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
72
FLORIDA
75
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 FLA @ MIZ 74 - 76
Mar 14, 2025 MIZ @ FLA 81 - 95
Jan 14, 2025 MIZ @ FLA 83 - 82
Feb 28, 2024 MIZ @ FLA 74 - 83
Jan 20, 2024 FLA @ MIZ 79 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.5% more
Missouri: 7.8 vs Florida: 6.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Missouri: 33.9% vs Florida: 30.0%
Blocks (L5) +42.5% more
Florida: 5.8 vs Missouri: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +38.3% more
Florida: 50.1 vs Missouri: 30.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 64.0 74
MIZ Score 65.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 30.0 36.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.1 / 14.5 11.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 50.1 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 68.2 60.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 50.1 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.8 / 6.1 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 12.0 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIZ
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIZ
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
FLA
MIZ
FLA
ML
61% 20-13
77% 27-8
69% 22-10
63% 22-13
ATS
70% 23-10
69% 24-11
69% 22-10
63% 22-13
TTL
79% 26-7
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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