Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Illini @ Nittany Lions ILL @ PSU

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

10-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-4  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Illinois)
Fighting IlliniILL (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Illini Cover

98.6%

Nittany Lions Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

ILL By 1-7 points

5.8%

ILL By 8-14 points

15.3%

PSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
73
ILLINOIS
51
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
71
ILLINOIS
78
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Illini Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Illini (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 ILL @ PSU 73 - 65
Jan 8, 2025 PSU @ ILL 52 - 91
Feb 21, 2024 ILL @ PSU 89 - 90
Mar 9, 2023 PSU @ ILL 79 - 76
Feb 14, 2023 ILL @ PSU 81 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +61.5% more
Illinois: 6.2 vs Penn State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +34.7% more
Illinois: 40.7 vs Penn State: 26.6
Assists (L5) +24.2% more
Illinois: 18.3 vs Penn State: 13.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
Illinois: 81.5% vs Penn State: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 73.0 73
PSU Score 51.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 38.9 21.0 / 22.0
Assists 13.9 / 18.3 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.4 / 6.2 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 49.4 35.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 81.5 64.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 26.6 / 40.7 37.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.5 / 2.8 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.0 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
ILL
PSU
ILL
ML
72% 23-9
65% 24-13
56% 18-14
57% 20-15
ATS
72% 23-9
70% 26-11
56% 18-14
57% 20-15
TTL
66% 21-11
57% 21-16
100% 32-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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