Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Volunteers @ Razorbacks TENN @ ARK

TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

10-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 3:00 PM ET
Bud Walton Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

10-3  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
📊
RAZORBACKS
100%
VOLUNTEERS --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tennessee)
VolunteersTENN (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Volunteers Cover

65.5%

Razorbacks Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-7 points

27.4%

TENN By 8-14 points

21.6%

ARK By 1-7 points

20.1%

ARK By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
87
TENNESSEE
83
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
70
TENNESSEE
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Volunteers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Volunteers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 TENN @ ARK 75 - 86
Jan 4, 2025 ARK @ TENN 52 - 76
Feb 14, 2024 TENN @ ARK 92 - 63
Feb 28, 2023 ARK @ TENN 57 - 75
Mar 5, 2022 ARK @ TENN 74 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +20.4% more
Tennessee: 45.7 vs Arkansas: 36.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Tennessee: 10.7 vs Arkansas: 9.2
Assists (L5) +10.2% more
Tennessee: 22.1 vs Arkansas: 19.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.8%
Arkansas: 46.7% vs Tennessee: 33.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 87.0 75
ARK Score 83.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 46.7 / 33.9 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 19.8 / 22.1 7.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.5 10.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 52.9 42.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 61.7 88.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 45.7 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.2 / 7.5 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 10.7 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
TENN
ARK
TENN
ML
68% 25-12
46% 17-20
81% 25-6
64% 21-12
ATS
70% 26-11
54% 20-17
81% 25-6
64% 21-12
TTL
57% 21-16
76% 28-9
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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