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BYU

COUGARSBYU

12-1  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 1:30 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

9-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
COUGARS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (BYU)
CougarsBYU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

100.0%

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BYU -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

BYU By 1-7 points

0.2%

BYU By 8-14 points

1.4%

KSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
97
BYU
61
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
69
BYU
75
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u174.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u174.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 KSU @ BYU 91 - 105
Jan 3, 2026 BYU @ KSU 83 - 73
Feb 24, 2024 BYU @ KSU 74 - 84
Feb 10, 2024 KSU @ BYU 66 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.2% more
BYU: 11.5 vs Kansas State: 8.0
Blocks (L5) +11.0% more
BYU: 5.3 vs Kansas State: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
BYU: 53.5% vs Kansas State: 49.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
BYU: 78.6% vs Kansas State: 75.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 97.0 83
KSU Score 61.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 38.1 14.0 / 38.0
Assists 21.5 / 18.5 15.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.3 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 53.5 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 78.6 74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 39.0 35.0 / 47.0
Steals 8.0 / 11.5 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 11.4 12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
BYU
KSU
BYU
ML
59% 19-13
60% 21-14
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
ATS
62% 20-12
54% 19-16
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
TTL
47% 15-17
69% 24-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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