Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Ole Miss MIA @ MISS

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

12-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

13-1  |  Home

27
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
MIAMI --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ole Miss)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

47.2%

Ole Miss Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.1%

MIA By 7-13 points

14.6%

MISS By 1-6 points

16.7%

MISS By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
34
MIAMI
35
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
27
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss Loss
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Ole Miss Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim Ole Miss (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 8, 2026 MIA @ MISS 31 - 27
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +36.3% more
Ole Miss: 27.8 vs Miami: 20.4
Total Yards (L5) +33.3% more
Ole Miss: 511.1 vs Miami: 383.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Ole Miss: 177.4 vs Miami: 151.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 34.0 31
MISS Score 35.0 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
MIA
MISS
MIA
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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