SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
24-9 | Road
123
INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-28 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
PACERS
100%
SPURS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
16.9%
SA By 8-14 points
26.2%
IND By 1-7 points
5.8%
IND By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Indiana
111
INDIANA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
115
SAN ANTONIO
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
IND @ SA
119 - 134
Jan 2, 2026
SA @ IND
123 - 113
Oct 13, 2025
SA @ IND
124 - 108
Jan 25, 2025
IND @ SA
136 - 98
Jan 23, 2025
SA @ IND
140 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+22.5% more
San Antonio: 48.6
vs
Indiana: 37.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
San Antonio: 80.3%
vs
Indiana: 75.4%
Steals (L5)
+33.0% more
Indiana: 8.7
vs
San Antonio: 6.6
Turnovers (L5)
+15.8% more
Indiana: 15.0
vs
San Antonio: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
125.0
123
IND Score
111.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 32.1
40.0 / 28.0
Assists
25.6 / 25.3
26.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.8
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 46.5
51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 80.3
87.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 48.6
39.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.6
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 13.0
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
SA
IND
SA
ML
48%
47-50
60%
111-73
54%
45-38
58%
61-44
ATS
59%
57-40
58%
107-76-1
54%
45-38
58%
61-44
TTL
54%
52-45
74%
134-47-3
100%
83-0
100%
105-0
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