Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Warriors OKC @ GS

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

29-5  |  Road

131
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

18-16  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
THUNDER --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
113
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 GS @ OKC 97 - 104
Jan 2, 2026 OKC @ GS 131 - 94
Dec 2, 2025 OKC @ GS 124 - 112
Nov 11, 2025 GS @ OKC 102 - 126
Jan 29, 2025 OKC @ GS 109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.4% more
Golden State: 16.9 vs Oklahoma City: 13.5
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Golden State: 30.4 vs Oklahoma City: 26.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Golden State: 87.0% vs Oklahoma City: 81.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Golden State: 37.9% vs Oklahoma City: 34.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 112.0 131
GS Score 113.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 34.6 30.0 / 42.0
Assists 30.4 / 26.4 23.0 / 34.0
Blocks 4.9 / 7.2 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 50.4 36.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 87.0 / 81.9 74.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 42.9 43.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.8 / 11.4 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 13.5 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
OKC
GS
OKC
ML
55% 95-79
70% 80-34
58% 49-35
48% 46-49
ATS
58% 101-73
73% 83-30-1
58% 49-35
48% 46-49
TTL
77% 134-40
67% 76-38
100% 84-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 24 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 7 hours, 30 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 32 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 13 hours, 43 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 20 hours, 14 minutes ago