FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
KNIGHTSFDU
3-10 | Road
74
MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
5-8 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
LAKERS
100%
KNIGHTS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (Fairleigh Dickinson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FDU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FDU)
FDU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FDU By 8-14 points
0.0%
MERC By 1-7 points
0.0%
MERC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairleigh Dickinson
96
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Mercyhurst
48
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
Fairleigh Dickinson
68
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Mercyhurst
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Knights (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
FDU @ MERC
61 - 70
Feb 7, 2026
MERC @ FDU
52 - 55
Jan 2, 2026
FDU @ MERC
74 - 67
Feb 20, 2025
FDU @ MERC
60 - 65
Feb 1, 2025
MERC @ FDU
67 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.8% more
Fairleigh Dickinson: 36.7
vs
Mercyhurst: 30.9
Turnovers (L5)
+14.4% more
Fairleigh Dickinson: 11.8
vs
Mercyhurst: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Fairleigh Dickinson: 65.7%
vs
Mercyhurst: 62.8%
Blocks (L5)
+124.7% more
Mercyhurst: 4.0
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FDU Score
96.0
74
MERC Score
48.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 29.4
16.0 / 47.0
Assists
15.0 / 12.6
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.0 / 1.8
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 35.8
44.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
62.8 / 65.7
90.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 36.7
22.0 / 31.0
Steals
9.9 / 4.8
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 11.8
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FDU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FDU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0%
Total +/-: -2.5
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
FDU
MERC
FDU
ML
59%
20-14
65%
20-11
79%
26-7
74%
23-8
ATS
62%
21-13
68%
21-10
79%
26-7
74%
23-8
TTL
53%
18-16
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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