NEW HAVEN
CHARGERSNHVN
5-8 | Road
70
STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
3-10 | Home
55
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
SKYHAWKS
0%
CHARGERS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Stonehill)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)
NHVN By 1-7 points
21.6%
NHVN By 8-14 points
10.7%
STO By 1-7 points
27.2%
STO By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New Haven
66
NEW HAVEN
Stonehill
69
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
New Haven
63
NEW HAVEN
Stonehill
75
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o128.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u128.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
STO @ NHVN
51 - 64
Jan 2, 2026
NHVN @ STO
70 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.7% more
Stonehill: 2.9
vs
New Haven: 2.0
Rebounding (L5)
+36.2% more
Stonehill: 40.4
vs
New Haven: 29.7
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Stonehill: 15.0
vs
New Haven: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Stonehill: 32.5%
vs
New Haven: 21.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score
66.0
70
STO Score
69.0
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 21.8
32.0 / 43.0
Assists
11.6 / 11.5
10.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.0
3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
37.8 / 40.9
35.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 63.8
75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
40.4 / 29.7
35.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.3 / 6.8
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 11.9
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
STO
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -3.5
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
NHVN
STO
NHVN
ML
45%
15-18
71%
22-9
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
ATS
39%
13-20
74%
23-8
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
TTL
55%
18-15
42%
13-18
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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