WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
5-6 | Road
79
CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
2-11 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
0%
COUGARS
100%
SEAHAWKS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
WAGNER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Wagner)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WAG -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAG)
WAG By 1-7 points
16.9%
WAG By 8-14 points
26.2%
CHST By 1-7 points
5.8%
CHST By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Wagner
61
WAGNER
Chicago State
47
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
Wagner
70
WAGNER
Chicago State
73
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Seahawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Seahawks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
CHST @ WAG
61 - 80
Jan 2, 2026
WAG @ CHST
79 - 72
Feb 22, 2025
WAG @ CHST
64 - 52
Jan 3, 2025
CHST @ WAG
64 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.1% more
Wagner: 3.3
vs
Chicago State: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+44.9% more
Wagner: 15.6
vs
Chicago State: 8.6
Rebounding (L5)
+15.8% more
Wagner: 42.3
vs
Chicago State: 35.6
Turnovers (L5)
+15.0% more
Wagner: 12.9
vs
Chicago State: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WAG Score
61.0
79
CHST Score
47.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.7 / 25.6
41.0 / 44.0
Assists
8.6 / 15.6
13.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.4 / 3.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
35.8 / 46.6
36.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
83.9 / 75.5
85.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 42.3
33.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.9 / 8.3
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 12.9
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
CHST
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
CHST
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
WAG
CHST
WAG
ML
75%
24-8
63%
19-11
73%
22-8
57%
17-13
ATS
69%
22-10
60%
18-12
73%
22-8
57%
17-13
TTL
44%
14-18
53%
16-14
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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