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LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

11-2  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

11-3  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
CARDINAL
0%
CARDINALS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Stanford)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.1%

Cardinal Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

LOU By 1-7 points

0.1%

LOU By 8-14 points

0.0%

STAN By 1-7 points

0.6%

STAN By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
LOUISVILLE
88
STANFORD
Simulated Score
69
LOUISVILLE
72
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinal Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinal (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 LOU @ STAN 76 - 80
Mar 13, 2025 STAN @ LOU 73 - 75
Mar 8, 2025 STAN @ LOU 48 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.0% more
Stanford: 8.3 vs Louisville: 6.7
Assists (L5) +36.0% more
Louisville: 18.5 vs Stanford: 11.9
Rebounding (L5) +18.9% more
Louisville: 43.2 vs Stanford: 35.0
Blocks (L5) +17.1% more
Louisville: 3.4 vs Stanford: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 56.0 76
STAN Score 88.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 35.7 47.0 / 22.0
Assists 11.9 / 18.5 6.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.4 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 38.6 / 47.0 46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 78.4 68.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 43.2 31.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.3 / 6.7 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.2 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
STAN
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
STAN Advantage
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
LOU
STAN
LOU
ML
48% 16-17
63% 22-13
50% 16-16
71% 24-10
ATS
48% 16-17
71% 25-10
50% 16-16
71% 24-10
TTL
55% 18-15
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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