Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Blue Raiders LT @ MTSU

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

8-4  |  Road

51
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

7-5  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
BulldogsLT (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.1%

Blue Raiders Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

LT By 1-7 points

0.1%

LT By 8-14 points

0.0%

MTSU By 1-7 points

0.8%

MTSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
39
LOUISIANA TECH
70
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
70
LOUISIANA TECH
73
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 MTSU @ LT 69 - 80
Jan 14, 2026 MTSU @ LT 58 - 59
Jan 2, 2026 LT @ MTSU 51 - 88
Mar 13, 2025 LT @ MTSU 75 - 77
Feb 20, 2025 LT @ MTSU 85 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 5.1 vs Louisiana Tech: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
Middle Tennessee: 14.3 vs Louisiana Tech: 12.4
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 8.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 5.7
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
Louisiana Tech: 14.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 39.0 51
MTSU Score 70.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 36.1 50.0 / 22.0
Assists 11.7 / 14.7 22.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.7 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 45.7 55.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 65.8 / 67.0 25.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 41.6 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.4 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 12.4 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
LT
MTSU
LT
ML
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
ATS
75% 24-8
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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