MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
8-4 | Road
59
SAINT PETER'S
PEACOCKSSPU
6-5 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
100%
PEACOCKS
0%
RED FOXES
--
PEACOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAINT PETER'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Saint Peter's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SPU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SPU)
MRST By 1-7 points
23.0%
MRST By 8-14 points
12.2%
SPU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SPU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Marist
76
MARIST
Saint Peter's
78
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
Marist
65
MARIST
Saint Peter's
68
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Peacocks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Peacocks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Peacocks (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Peacocks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u131.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
SPU @ MRST
63 - 56
Jan 2, 2026
MRST @ SPU
59 - 69
Mar 2, 2025
SPU @ MRST
57 - 52
Jan 16, 2025
MRST @ SPU
56 - 51
Feb 25, 2024
MRST @ SPU
60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.3% more
Saint Peter's: 3.4
vs
Marist: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+26.5% more
Saint Peter's: 10.3
vs
Marist: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Saint Peter's: 78.5%
vs
Marist: 75.5%
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
Marist: 14.7
vs
Saint Peter's: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRST Score
76.0
59
SPU Score
78.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.0 / 29.4
23.0 / 18.0
Assists
11.9 / 14.7
9.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.3
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
39.4 / 42.9
37.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 75.5
79.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 36.7
44.0 / 35.0
Steals
10.3 / 8.1
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.9
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
SPU
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
MRST
SPU
MRST
ML
64%
18-10
55%
17-14
71%
20-8
61%
19-12
ATS
71%
20-8
74%
23-8
71%
20-8
61%
19-12
TTL
61%
17-11
52%
16-15
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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