Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Waves @ Broncos PEPP @ SCU

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

5-10  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Leavey Center
View Odds Details →

SANTA CLARA

BRONCOSSCU

11-4  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
WAVES --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
SANTA CLARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Santa Clara)
WavesPEPP (-3.5) 0 BroncosSCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Waves Cover

0.0%

Broncos Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SCU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCU)

PEPP By 1-7 points

0.0%

PEPP By 8-14 points

0.0%

SCU By 1-7 points

0.5%

SCU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
62
PEPPERDINE
95
SANTA CLARA
Simulated Score
70
PEPPERDINE
78
SANTA CLARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 PEPP @ SCU 63 - 82
Mar 9, 2025 PEPP @ SCU 78 - 76
Dec 28, 2024 PEPP @ SCU 80 - 91
Jan 25, 2024 PEPP @ SCU 71 - 94
Jan 6, 2024 SCU @ PEPP 78 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +88.9% more
Santa Clara: 9.0 vs Pepperdine: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +57.3% more
Santa Clara: 3.0 vs Pepperdine: 1.9
Assists (L5) +48.2% more
Santa Clara: 19.4 vs Pepperdine: 13.1
Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
Santa Clara: 50.9% vs Pepperdine: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score 62.0 63
SCU Score 95.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 28.9 27.0 / 29.0
Assists 19.4 / 13.1 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.9 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 40.2 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 74.6 67.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 30.6 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.0 / 4.8 15.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 14.2 12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
SCU Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
SCU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SCU
PEPP
SCU
PEPP
ML
44% 15-19
62% 20-12
73% 22-8
69% 22-10
ATS
53% 18-16
56% 18-14
74% 23-8
69% 22-10
TTL
47% 16-18
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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