Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Cougars LMU @ WSU

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

10-5  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 9:30 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

6-9  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
LIONS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Washington State)
LionsLMU (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

2.3%

Cougars Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

LMU By 1-7 points

1.7%

LMU By 8-14 points

0.3%

WSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

WSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
88
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
68
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
72
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 WSU @ LMU 66 - 67
Jan 2, 2026 LMU @ WSU 76 - 78
Mar 8, 2025 LMU @ WSU 77 - 94
Dec 30, 2024 LMU @ WSU 59 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.7% more
Washington State: 15.5 vs Loyola Marymount: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +32.6% more
Washington State: 43.7 vs Loyola Marymount: 32.9
Blocks (L5) +45.1% more
Loyola Marymount: 6.5 vs Washington State: 3.6
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
Loyola Marymount: 14.0 vs Washington State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LMU Score 68.0 76
WSU Score 88.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 39.3 43.0 / 36.0
Assists 10.2 / 14.0 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.6 / 6.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 48.6 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 64.1 / 65.0 92.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 32.9 35.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.2 1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 10.5 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LMU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
WSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
LMU
WSU
LMU
ML
78% 25-7
53% 17-15
69% 20-9
50% 16-16
ATS
78% 25-7
47% 15-17
69% 20-9
50% 16-16
TTL
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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