SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
8-4 | Road
91
WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
7-5 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
100%
HILLTOPPERS
0%
BEARKATS
--
HILLTOPPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WKU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)
SHSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
SHSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
WKU By 1-7 points
1.1%
WKU By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sam Houston
53
SAM HOUSTON
Western Kentucky
83
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Sam Houston
68
SAM HOUSTON
Western Kentucky
75
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hilltoppers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hilltoppers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hilltoppers (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Hilltoppers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u167.5
Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
WKU @ SHSU
58 - 73
Jan 2, 2026
SHSU @ WKU
91 - 102
Feb 20, 2025
SHSU @ WKU
78 - 62
Jan 25, 2025
WKU @ SHSU
75 - 66
Feb 1, 2024
SHSU @ WKU
79 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Western Kentucky: 73.7%
vs
Sam Houston: 70.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+15.1% more
Sam Houston: 50.6
vs
Western Kentucky: 43.0
Assists (L5)
+14.4% more
Sam Houston: 15.6
vs
Western Kentucky: 13.4
Turnovers (L5)
+12.3% more
Sam Houston: 11.6
vs
Western Kentucky: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score
53.0
91
WKU Score
83.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 36.0
40.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.4 / 15.6
17.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.0
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.5 / 47.1
46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 70.3
74.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 50.6
49.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.8
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.6
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
WKU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
WKU
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
SHSU
WKU
SHSU
ML
56%
18-14
55%
18-15
66%
21-11
74%
23-8
ATS
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
66%
21-11
74%
23-8
TTL
56%
18-14
48%
16-17
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
