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WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

15-19-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

18-15-6  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Dylan Samberg
GOALTENDER

Dylan Samberg

#54 | Defense
@
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dylan Samberg None-None -- -- --
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
JETS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
JetsWPG (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WPG By 1 goal

12.1%

WPG By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
WINNIPEG
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
WINNIPEG
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 TOR @ WPG 4 - 3
Jan 1, 2026 WPG @ TOR 5 - 6
Dec 23, 2024 WPG @ TOR 5 - 2
Oct 28, 2024 TOR @ WPG 6 - 4
Jan 27, 2024 TOR @ WPG 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +27.8%
Toronto: 33.4% vs Winnipeg: 5.6%
Blocked Shots (L5) +8.5% more
Toronto: 12.6 vs Winnipeg: 11.6
Faceoff % (L5) +4.4%
Toronto: 52.9% vs Winnipeg: 48.5%
Hits (L5) +8.4% more
Winnipeg: 24.5 vs Toronto: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WPG Score 1.0 5
TOR Score 2.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.6 / 11.6 11.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 52.9 / 48.5 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 22.5 / 24.5 23.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 33.4 / 5.6 100.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 29.2 / 29.1 30.0 / 40.0
Takeaways 4.0 / 4.4 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WPG
TOR
WPG
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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