TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
23-13-3 | Road
5
LOS ANGELES
KINGSLA
16-13-9 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Darcy Kuemper
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Darcy Kuemper | None-None | 4.02 | 0.826 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.02
--
Save %
0.826
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
KINGS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around LA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LA)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
LA By 1 goal
19.7%
LA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 1, 2026
TB @ LA
5 - 3
Dec 18, 2025
LA @ TB
2 - 1
Jan 30, 2025
LA @ TB
0 - 3
Jan 4, 2025
TB @ LA
1 - 2
Mar 23, 2024
TB @ LA
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.6%
Los Angeles: 50.0%
vs
Tampa Bay: 42.4%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.8% more
Tampa Bay: 14.9
vs
Los Angeles: 11.3
Power Play % (L5)
+3.2%
Tampa Bay: 20.9%
vs
Los Angeles: 17.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
5
LA Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.3 / 14.9
21.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
50.0 / 42.4
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
21.6 / 20.1
20.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
17.7 / 20.9
66.7 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
27.1 / 25.5
20.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.6
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LA
TB
LA
TB
ML
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
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