EASTERN ILLINOIS
PANTHERSEIU
4-8 | Road
59
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
6-7 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
PANTHERS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Eastern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EIU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EIU)
EIU By 1-7 points
4.0%
EIU By 8-14 points
12.2%
SEMO By 1-7 points
0.6%
SEMO By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Illinois
91
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Southeast Missouri State
67
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
Eastern Illinois
69
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Southeast Missouri State
73
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-12.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
SEMO @ EIU
77 - 59
Jan 1, 2026
EIU @ SEMO
59 - 68
Mar 1, 2025
SEMO @ EIU
58 - 73
Dec 19, 2024
EIU @ SEMO
72 - 79
Feb 15, 2024
SEMO @ EIU
57 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.3% more
Eastern Illinois: 9.1
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 5.9
Assists (L5)
+23.6% more
Eastern Illinois: 18.4
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 14.1
Rebounding (L5)
+8.9% more
Eastern Illinois: 40.8
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 37.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.5%
Eastern Illinois: 74.8%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EIU Score
91.0
59
SEMO Score
67.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 32.5
28.0 / 31.0
Assists
14.1 / 18.4
17.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.0
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 48.0
45.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 74.8
45.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.2 / 40.8
37.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.9 / 9.1
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 14.2
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EIU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EIU
Advantage
15-13-2
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
EIU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.7
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
EIU
SEMO
EIU
ML
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
50%
15-15
74%
23-8
ATS
67%
22-11
50%
16-16
50%
15-15
74%
23-8
TTL
58%
19-14
69%
22-10
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
