INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
8-6 | Road
66
NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
10-3 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
100%
PANTHERS
0%
SYCAMORES
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
INST By 1-7 points
3.3%
INST By 8-14 points
0.6%
UNI By 1-7 points
12.2%
UNI By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana State
61
INDIANA STATE
Northern Iowa
78
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
Indiana State
68
INDIANA STATE
Northern Iowa
73
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
UNI @ INST
81 - 60
Jan 1, 2026
INST @ UNI
66 - 75
Feb 11, 2025
INST @ UNI
73 - 88
Jan 25, 2025
UNI @ INST
74 - 56
Mar 9, 2024
UNI @ INST
72 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.3% more
Northern Iowa: 4.2
vs
Indiana State: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+18.9% more
Northern Iowa: 7.2
vs
Indiana State: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.3%
Northern Iowa: 73.7%
vs
Indiana State: 62.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+25.2% more
Indiana State: 13.1
vs
Northern Iowa: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
INST Score
61.0
66
UNI Score
78.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 36.6
23.0 / 23.0
Assists
15.4 / 18.8
12.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 45.9
54.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 62.4
67.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 36.5
35.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.1
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 13.1
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
UNI
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
INST
UNI
INST
ML
51%
18-17
66%
21-11
56%
19-15
53%
17-15
ATS
49%
17-18
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
53%
17-15
TTL
69%
24-11
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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