UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
11-2 | Road
65
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
5-9 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
TRITONS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
UCSD By 1-7 points
0.6%
UCSD By 8-14 points
0.1%
CP By 1-7 points
4.0%
CP By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal Poly
96
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal Poly
68
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Tritons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
CP @ UCSD
69 - 72
Feb 28, 2026
CP @ UCSD
64 - 80
Jan 1, 2026
UCSD @ CP
65 - 67
Feb 20, 2025
UCSD @ CP
81 - 67
Jan 9, 2025
CP @ UCSD
68 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+64.3% more
Cal Poly: 16.8
vs
UC San Diego: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.2%
Cal Poly: 81.4%
vs
UC San Diego: 65.2%
Blocks (L5)
+55.0% more
UC San Diego: 3.1
vs
Cal Poly: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+41.8% more
UC San Diego: 8.8
vs
Cal Poly: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
72.0
65
CP Score
96.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 33.6
26.0 / 25.0
Assists
10.8 / 16.7
10.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.4 / 3.1
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 47.4
35.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 65.2
71.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 38.1
44.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.1 / 8.8
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 10.2
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
UCSD
CP
UCSD
ML
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
ATS
64%
21-12
50%
17-17
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
TTL
61%
20-13
62%
21-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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