UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
9-4 | Road
84
CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
5-9 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
TITANS
0%
GAUCHOS
--
TITANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Cal State Fullerton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUF -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUF)
UCSB By 1-7 points
0.1%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.0%
CSUF By 1-7 points
1.4%
CSUF By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
51
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal State Fullerton
80
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
68
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal State Fullerton
72
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Titans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Titans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Titans (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Titans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
CSUF @ UCSB
69 - 83
Jan 1, 2026
UCSB @ CSUF
84 - 95
Feb 20, 2025
CSUF @ UCSB
56 - 86
Jan 25, 2025
UCSB @ CSUF
83 - 75
Mar 2, 2024
UCSB @ CSUF
70 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.4% more
Cal State Fullerton: 37.3
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 33.5
Turnovers (L5)
+8.5% more
Cal State Fullerton: 14.5
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
UC Santa Barbara: 50.3%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 44.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
UC Santa Barbara: 71.0%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 65.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
51.0
84
CSUF Score
80.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 39.2
29.0 / 41.0
Assists
17.1 / 16.3
9.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.8
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 50.3
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 71.0
81.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 33.5
22.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.9
16.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 13.4
10.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUF
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
UCSB
CSUF
UCSB
ML
68%
23-11
59%
19-13
76%
26-8
72%
23-9
ATS
68%
23-11
62%
20-12
76%
26-8
72%
23-9
TTL
59%
20-14
47%
15-17
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
